Published 01.24.03

 

Centennial scholars add up

Bethany Holt
Copy Editor

Photo by Amy Nell: John Gregoire finds the answers for the Centennial Lecture, “Periodic Inspection Plans and Interval Data—The Case of Weibull Distribution,” on Tuesday night. 

How many Centennial Scholars does it take to change a light bulb? While this particular question was not addressed at the Centennial Lecture Tuesday night, there was some discussion about light bulbs, among other things.

Haimeng Zhang, assistant professor in the mathematics and computer science department, Samuel MacDonald, ’02 and junior John Gregoire presented their research project: “Periodic Inspection Plans and Interval Data—The Case of Weibull Distribution.”

Zhang, MacDonald and Gregoire received a Centennial Research Grant from Concordia for the summer of 2001. The project on which they worked had grown from Zhang’s individual research. The three began their work right after commencement in 2001, meeting almost every day.

When they began, neither MacDonald, who had just completed his junior year, nor Gregoire, at the end of his first year, had taken the probability and statistics course.

‘They needed lots of probability and stats background” to do the research, so Zhang began their time together by teaching them what they needed to know about the subjects. At that time, Zhang was anticipating continual work for a year.

“I was really surprised,” Zhang said, when they finished the majority of the project by early July.

Not only was their work efficient, it was noted by the international community; they were invited to present their research at the International Conference of Statistics and Related Topics last summer in Hawaii. Only Zhang and Gregoire were able to attend.

During Tuesday’s lecture, Zhang began by explaining to the audience some of the basic concepts in statistics. MacDonald followed by introducing the project itself and explaining the value of the research.

Researchers are interested in the lifetime at which an event of interest occurs; MacDonald used the “lifetime” of a light bulb as an example. To learn when the life of a light bulb ends, there are a few options: one could use a continuous inspection plan (i.e. sit and watch the light bulb until it goes out) or a periodic inspection plan (check it periodically to see whether it’s still working). Obviously, MacDonald said, the latter would be the better choice.
“[It would be] more convenient -- and better for my social life,” MacDonald joked.

The research that Zhang, MacDonald and Gregoire did investigated the optimum periodic inspection plan using regular time intervals and time intervals in log-time scale. In other words, they wanted to find out the best times to check the light bulb so they would minimize the information loss due to only periodically checking.

Gregoire, following MacDonald, presented the complicated calculations and equations they had gone through to arrive at their final answer.

Each of the lecturers gleaned positive things from the experience.

“The part [of the experience] most enjoyable for me,” said MacDonald, now a software test engineer for Microsoft Business Solutions, “was being able to study a specific topic in-depth for a significant period of time.”

“Doing this project at the time I did opened doors to other opportunities—other scholarship opportunities I obviously wouldn’t have had otherwise,” said Gregoire a math-physics double major. Last summer, Gregoire was accepted to a seven-week government-sponsored summer research program at the Rose Hulman Institute of Technology in Indiana. He has also received a prestigious Barry Goldwater scholarship.

Zhang was also enthusiastic about the project.

“It was a very wonderful experience for me, especially with these great students,” Zhang said.